• Video
  • Macro Outlook
    • The global economy

Global Economics Roundtable – Divergent prospects

It’s an uncertain time for the world economy. As central banks have become more serious about taming inflation, financial markets have seen significant turbulence, and fears of recession have grown.

In this video roundtable, HSBC economists give global and regional perspectives on the outlook. The speakers are:

  • Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist
  • Jing Liu, Chief Economist for Greater China
  • Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist
  • Simon Wells, Chief European Economist
  • Simon Williams, Chief Economist for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa

Introducing the discussion, Janet Henry says: “It’s quite clear that we have now been faced for a very long time with persistently high inflation, and it’s still rising. In recent months, central banks have been much more serious about their willingness to take aggressive action to try to tame inflation. Unsurprisingly, at the same time, financial markets have become more concerned about the growth implications: recession seems to be on the tip of everyone’s tongue.

For now, central banks are still somewhat benign in terms of their forecasts. They point to just a modest deceleration in growth and a limited impact on labour markets. We aren’t quite as optimistic as central banks, but nor are we currently forecasting a global synchronised recession. We are not even forecasting, at this point, a US recession.

We do see a marked deceleration in growth in some regions, and recessions in individual countries. We think it’s going to be a mixed picture for households: some of those facing the most severe cost-of-living squeezes will indeed be in some kind of recession. It’s also a mixed picture for different companies, and between individual sectors.

"We are still looking for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even as growth slows, because inflation is still so high. And given a complex inflation backdrop, we are not forecasting a quick policy reversal.”

Watch the video to get our take on the divergent prospects, risks and policy choices faced by economies around the world.

For more on global economics, read Janet’s recent article on why high inflation calls for a period of tough love from central banks.

Global Research

HSBC Global Research provides information, insights and thought-provoking ideas.

Find out more

For more information on gaining access to Global Research, ASK Research using the button below.