Recovering and healing
Guangdong’s economy grew 4.5% y-o-y in the first three quarters of 2023, with services and consumption leading the recovery from a year before. Still, this was slower than the national average, as the global electronics down-cycle and the property slowdown hit the province relatively hard. We expect Guangdong’s economy to accelerate slightly in 2024, to 4.8%, just below our national GDP forecast of 4.9%. For Hong Kong, we expect an ongoing recovery backed by a strong labour market and the gradual economic recovery in mainland China. Softer external demand and elevated interest rates may continue to weigh on market sentiment and investments. That said, growth will likely be solid in the GBA for 2024, on our estimates, and we may see improving momentum in the second half of the year.