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The Macro Brief – European election fever

European economists Simon Wells and Chantana Sam discuss new risks from election results in Europe and upcoming votes in France.

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This podcast is also available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

 Under the banyan tree

Under the Banyan Tree - There's always a 'but…'

Back from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Herald van der Linde and Erin Xin discuss what China's latest travel and spending numbers say about the wider state of its economy.

Click to listen

This podcast is also available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Disruptive Technology

Artificial Intelligence - The good, the bad, and the ugly

AI has the potential to drive significant improvements in productivity and open new opportunities for businesses. But not everyone will benefit equally. What can we expect next? In their latest report, HSBC’s Mark Macdonald, James Pomeroy, and team assess all aspects of AI.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/CrMWtLC


The Macro Brief - The good, the bad and the ugly of AI

James Pomeroy, Global Economist, discusses the likely impact of artificial intelligence - including what it could mean for productivity, jobs, and emerging markets.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/CDVX6wC


The Macro Brief - Funding the Future

Mark McDonald outlines the findings from HSBC's inaugural Funding the Future Survey, which provides insights into investors’ views on venture capital, private equity, and high-growth sectors – including technology.

Listen to podcast: https://grp.hsbc/61109juX8b


Autonomous Vehicles

When will fully self-driving cars becomes a commercial reality? HSBC’s Yaryna Kobel explores the regulatory, social and legal hurdles still to be overcome.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61101joOwt

Trade Flows

Asia–Middle East Corridor

Economic connectivity between Asia and the Middle East is set to soar in coming years, expanding well beyond energy trade. HSBC economists examine what could fuel the boom in trade and investment.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61104jCtIu


Under the Banyan Tree - Exploring the Asia-Middle East corridor

Fred Neumann is joined by fellow economists Justin Feng in Hong Kong and Simon Williams in Dubai to discuss Asia’s deepening economic ties with the Middle East.

Listen to podcast: https://grp.hsbc/61106dPiUO


Risks to the trade rebound

There are some signs that global trade is returning to growth, but HSBC’s Shanella Rajanayagam says high freight costs, port congestion, Red Sea shipping disruption and rising protectionism pose risks.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/SrKx7LK

Demographics

Demographics - A key driver of everything

Demographics are evolving at the fastest pace in history. This adds fuel to the structural changes that are reshaping the global economy and has big implications for potential growth and policymaking, say HSBC’s James Pomeroy and Herald van der Linde.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/FNfsV67

AI developments

Can AI do my job?

How close is OpenAI’s Advanced Data Analysis module to replacing human analysts? HSBC’s Mark McDonald investigates.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/Wknbjsh


Storm AI: Weather forecasting

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have stressed the importance of weather forecasting

More unpredictable weather reduces the reliability of forecasting, with many negative economic and social impacts

Artificial intelligence (AI) could raise forecast accuracy, potentially saving lives and significant climate damages

To find out more, read the latest report by HSBC Global Research’s ESG & Climate Change team here: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/9xhMRr6

US elections

The Macro Brief - Countdown to the US elections

With November’s elections looming, we assess the state of play, key policy issues and implications for the Federal Reserve and the US dollar with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Daragh Maher, Head of FX Strategy, US.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/PBZqvdw


Six Weeks to Go…

The inaugural HSBC Global Investment Summit will bring together over 2,000 delegates in Hong Kong from 8-10 April

Ahead of the big event, we will provide a weekly update with some of our most topical and relevant research

This week we assess China’s prospects in 2024, examine AI developments, and discuss US elections

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/jFkThgW

Asia insights: China, India, and ASEAN

Under the Banyan Tree – China's holiday spending by the numbers

Fred Neumann sits down with Chief China Economist Jing Liu to discuss travel and spending numbers over the Spring Festival period and what they tell us about the broader Chinese economy.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/P6pnXML


Finding growth in the Year of the Dragon

What’s in store for China’s economy in the Year of the Dragon? Jing Liu discusses the outlook – including policy support for the property sector.

View the summary: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/en-gb/insights/global-research/the-year-of-the-dragon


India’s no-compromise budget

The central government announced lower-than-expected fiscal deficit estimates for 2024 and 2025. What does it mean for India’s economy? Read the latest report by HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari and Aayushi Chaudhary to find out more.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/KMXpqJ7


HSBC Flash India PMI

The latest HSBC Flash India PMI saw output at a seven-month high, new orders rising the fastest in a decade, and input prices soften. Pranjul Bhandari takes us through her findings in her report.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/MzkhDzM


Under the Banyan Tree - ASEAN Insights: Indonesia

Fred Neumann welcomes Pranjul Bhandari to discuss Indonesia’s key industries, growth outlook, and how the national election could shape economic policy.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/RX7VmHr


Under the Banyan Tree - ASEAN Insights: Vietnam, Malaysia & Singapore

Fred Neumann is joined by ASEAN Economist Yun Liu for a look at what makes these key Southeast Asian economies tick, from semiconductors to tourism and the 'concert economy'.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/VpZSplc

Other recent reports and podcasts

Services surge

In this Global Wrap PMI, HSBC’s Maitreyi Das investigates how the global composite PMI rose to 52.4 in April, marking the best reading since June 2023, on the back of better services data and input costs accelerated for manufacturers due to higher prices of raw materials and labour costs, though firms mostly remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead.

Click to read: https://grp.hsbc/61106jCQ8K


Eurozone inflation briefing - Disinflation intact

HSBC’s Fabio Falboni says Eurozone inflation volatility remains high, but overall, the disinflationary trend remains intact and should give the European Central Bank plenty of confidence to cut rates in June.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/96x7fJd


Major bond letter – #49. No regrets

HSBC’s Steven Major, Global Head of Fixed Income Research, assesses the appearance of an asymmetric bias to potential bond returns in the latest Major bond letter.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/sJlDQKx


Commodities – Upswing underway … at a new higher level

Global commodity prices are in an upswing, and we think they have passed the trough for the cycle. Demand appears to be lifting and the supply-side is ‘super-squeezed’. So, what’s next? HSBC’s Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling explore.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/XLqFkSs


Commodities - ‘Dr Copper’ and the ‘super-squeeze’

Copper prices are up sharply in recent weeks as mining underinvestment and a wave of ‘green demand’ has made the copper market tighter than usual. HSBC’s Paul Bloxham explains the dynamics and whether this trend is sustainable.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61104jqvOi


Australian Economic Comment

Australian policymakers are considering a subsidy scheme for critical mineral and hydrogen exporters, in stark contrast to 15 years ago when the policy discussion was about a ‘resources super profits tax’ . Why the shift? HSBC’s Paul Bloxham explains.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61102dvxou


Australian Economic Comment

The last time that Australia’s economy operated this far beyond its capacity was back in 2008, just prior to the Global Financial Crisis. Back then, the global downturn prompted disinflation and a sharp rise in unemployment. But, as HSBC’s Paul Bloxham explains, this time could be different.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61107jrEEz


Greater Bay Area Insight

The latest policy talk in China is all about “new quality productive forces” and modernizing the country’s industrial base, say HSBC’s Jing Liu and Lulu Jiang. In their latest report they outline why they expect the Greater Bay Area to benefit and how high-end manufacturing can advance further, helped by financial backing from Hong Kong.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61103jyWgU


Accounting for R&D productivity & growth

In this latest report on accounting for R&D productivity & growth, HSBC's Rajesh Kumar and team look at how accounting analysis is overlooked by the market for the healthcare sector and how in a higher interest rate environment, earnings momentum might matter more than multiple re-rating. We will also be identifying a list of questions to help investors navigate the sector’s accounting quirks and revisit our preferred stocks in the sector.

Click to view: https://grp.hsbc/61107dxBKR


EU methane regulation

The EU has formally adopted regulation to reduce energy sector methane emissions across Europe and its global supply chains. What will it mean for coal, oil, and gas operators? HSBC’s ESG and equity teams consider the impact.

View the report: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/BSdGh7j


The Major bond letter #45. Tail wagging dog

Steven Major, HSBC’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research, looks at how bond yields are being pulled around by the tails, these days mainly by the right side.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/NmcvgQC


The Major bond letter #44. Opportunity Knocks

Steven Major looks at whether investors should contemplate switching from short-dated bills into longer-dated bonds.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/KnWvcbg


Australian Economic Comment

The market is all a-flurry with excitement about the prospect of Australia’s central bank cutting rates. But observers should cool their engines: the RBA could in fact be one of the last of the developed-economy central banks to cut, according to HSBC’s Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/T6pGmsb


Disappointment for doves

The global composite PMI rose to 51.8 in January and with resilient activity, better employment data and supply chain risks emerging again, the latest set of PMIs give central banks reason to be more cautious about the timing of rate cuts.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/HqnrGTR


Commodity Economics Comment

The price of uranium has doubled over the past year as nuclear power moves back into favour and demand rises. HSBC’s Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling discuss prospects for the metal.

Click to view: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/RCBpLHw


The Macro Brief - The baby bust intensifies

James Pomeroy, Global Economist, looks at how declining birth rates around the world are creating tough challenges for governments and economies.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/sbZP76b


The Macro Brief - Timing of rate cuts

We assess the potential path of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Liz Martins, Senior UK Economist.

Listen to podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/msCtnjk


Funding the future: Biopharma and AI optimism

What’s in focus for venture capital (VC) investors? With early signs of VC activity improving, HSBC’s Shiva Joon examines the disruptive technologies attracting attention.

View the summary: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/en-gb/insights/global-research/funding-the-future

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Shaping the Future - Nine key themes to guide your outlook

In Global Research, we view today's world of disruptive, complex and rapid change through the lens of nine themes. We expect these long-term trends reshaping economies, markets and societies worldwide to have lasting implications for investment strategies. They are: Automation; Demographics; Digital Finance; Disruptive Technology; Energy Transition; Future Cities; Future Consumer; Future Transport, and Trade Flows. These themes inform our coverage across asset classes and regions, and are instrumental in enabling us to help clients spot risks and opportunities. Please read on for an overview of our thematic approach, and how you can subscribe to our latest insights on trends reshaping economies worldwide.

Shaping the Future

From Future Cities to Demographics and Energy Transition, this brochure explains our 9 themes and how to access them.
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